A new poll by the Reno Gazette-Journal shows a neck-and-neck three-way race among Democrats for Saturday's caucus. On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. John McCain has taken his first lead in Nevada of the election season, and Mitt Romney, who has been working Nevada harder than any other Republican, is trailing in fourth place.Since Mitt Romney won Michigan yesterday, three states have given us three different winners in the Republican primaries. And pundits aren't yet ruling out Rudy Giuliani, or perhaps even a new draft candidate in the Republican race. (Newt Gingrich?)
A look at the top line results:
Barack Obama: 32 percent
Hillary Clinton: 30 percent
John Edwards: 27 percent
John McCain: 22 percent
Rudy Giuliani: 18 percent
Mike Huckabee: 16 percent
Mitt Romney: 15 percent
Fred Thompson: 11 percent
Ron Paul: 6 percent
Duncan Hunter: 1 percent
Could the same thing happen with the Democrats, i.e. three states and three different winners? After last night's debate it seems possible, especially given that the difference between the three candidates is within the margin of error. Also, "Saturday's Democratic caucus may attract no more than 50,000 people," and over 6,000 new voters have registered in the last two weeks in Las Vegas alone.
If Edwards does win, it would essentially re-enfranchise voters in the other 47 states, who likely don't know much about the candidates and still aren't prepared to choose the most electable among them.
You wouldn't know it from media coverage, but the nominating process is not winner-take all. So far, Edwards has 18 delegates to Obama's 25 -- 2000+ delegates are needed to win the nomination.
It's still anybody's game.
