Why Newsom is Worse Off Than He Will Let On

I mentioned yesterday that KPIX's Hank Plante seemed surprised, even confused, by the results of his CBS affiliate's poll, showing Matt Gonzalez leading Gavin Newsom by a few percentage points.
Our local all-news channel, and former NBC affiliate, KRON ran a story describing the race as
"close," a "statistical dead heat."
The local FOX affiliate, KTVU, ran the same story with a different headline, calling Gonzalez's advantage
"slight."
The major daily newspaper, the San Francisco Chronicle, ran a very different, and more biased story, with the headline:
New poll shows Gonzalez out in front
He leads Newsom 49% to 47% in S.F. mayor's race
This seems pretty favorable, and certainly tells much of the story.
The lead paragraph immediately suggests otherwise, saying the race is "too close to call, but Supervisor Matt Gonzalez has a small lead among those most likely to vote Dec. 9."
They Chron also added an interesting conditional statement that KPIX, KRON and KTVU either omitted or missed:
The poll, taken earlier this week by SurveyUSA of New Jersey, gave Gonzalez a surprising 49 to 47 percent lead over Supervisor Gavin Newsom among those certain to vote in the runoff. Among probable voters, Newsom had a 46 percent to 43 percent advantage. Both results are within the poll's margin of error.
Let me get this straight, Gonzalez leads by two percent "among those certain to vote in the runoff," but trails by three percent "among probable voters?"
Like the others, the Chron was surprised by the overall results, indicating that the local media either doesn't get what this election is about, doesn't believe the polling data, or doesn't want Gonzalez to win.
Newsom's chief campaign consultant, Eric Jaye, suggested rather sinisterly that automated phone surveys like this one are "notoriously unreliable."
The Newsom camp is still confident that it has a broader base of support, especially since most Republicans supported its candidate and enough Democrats did to get him to 40% - high, but not a majority. What they pretend not to understand is that 60% of voters didn't want him - and still don't.
The Chron does a lot to help the Newsom camp appear confident, and bolsters its confidence with easily manipulated data, but in the end such a strategy can only backfire, as voters who back Matt eventually realize that they are in the majority, and for good reason. San Franciscans are good, honest people at heart, and believe in merit, not patronage; in honesty, not pandering. And that's why more and more of them are supporting Matt everyday, for a better mayor, and for a better San Francisco.